Hungarian Commercial Bank of Pest 21-32. (Budapest, 1931)
No. 22, August 1928
Politics. When discussing foreign investment in Europe, European bankers generally avoid talking about political risks. Foreign investors are constantly thinking of such risks and therefore it should be right to face the question. We do not think that there is any conceivable reason to be nervous about political stability in Europe for many years to come. The Powers which have been victorious in the Great War, are perfectly satisfied with what they have obtained, while the Powers which have lost the War are too weak to do anything, even if they wanted to. Germany the one great Central Power is trying hard to cooperate with the Allied Powers and to maintain a friendly understanding with them with the view to strengthening her economic forces. There are no colonial problems which would disturb the harmony of European politics and the questions which are discussed in the League of Nations’ Meetings, are mostly of local and not general importance. The fact that the Kellogg-Pact for outlawing War is going to be signed by practically all European Powers and that the Powers are discussing disarmament between each other, in no case can be considered as a sign of growing differences between them. Although the cooperation of the many states in Europe creates difficulties from time to time, we do not see any reason indicating that European investment should be considered less safe politically than the investment in South-America, or Japan, or Dutch-Colonies, or even in the British Empire or the Atlantic-or Pacific-Islands. The fact that the Great War was fought in Europe does not indicate that there is any chance for a new War in Europe in the present generation, it is perhaps rather an argument to believe the contrary. But whatever may be the opinion concerning possibilities of a future War in Europe, it seems absurd to everybody who knows how small and interconnected the whole of Europe is, to believe that one country in Europe can be much safer than the other. Everybody who knows European conditions, also knows that, if trouble should arise in any part of Europe, it necessarily would io