The New Hungarian Quarterly, 1982 (23. évfolyam, 88. szám)

BOOKS AND AUTHORS - Kemenes Egon: Global Aspects of Economics, Political and Security (József Bognár)

182 THE NEW HUNGARIAN QUARTERLY but the effects of the political and security spheres render uncertain even the prospect and possible achievements of scaled down growth. New centres of political and economic power are developing in the international arena other than the Soviet Union and the United States. These new centres may con­siderably influence the development of in­ternational political events directly or in­directly within the various regions or by way of the relations between the two super powers. In the future, note will have to be taken of those effects which the inter­national political system (potentially con­flicting units) exerts on security efforts and on the deployment of military force. Pre­vious experience shows that these effects handicap the development of desirable and economically rational relationships. In any case, the central problem for future eco­nomic development is how far and in what manner the security sphere will acknowledge the system of mutual dependence, and the dangers in preventing or handicapping de­velopment of the necessary economic at­titudes. It is conceivable that the party which is stronger militarily and econom­ically, and politically more aggressive will want to eliminate any dependence it con­siders inconvenient using military force or various combinations of political and eco­nomic pressure. The negative consequences of such actions, however may assert them­selves immediately over wide fields in the present situation of mutual dependence. Cold war forces are endeavouring to broaden and escalate various regional con­flicts. It is, therefore, vital that people de­voted to peace and international cooperation and who clearly recognize the fact of mutual dependence, should prevent such an escala­tion. But it is also evident that limits to cold war escalation policies will emerge after a time, since the escalating country itself also suffers substantial economic strategic losses. As the negative effects of cold war politics develop, the adherents of détente gather strength, and may gradually halt or reverse the previous process. The principal limitation to cold war policies is that nuclear war is not a realistic alternative; it is not the kind of risk which can be taken in a system of rational actions. Therefore it seems clear that cold war con­frontations are necessarily followed after a certain time by periods of détente (as a result of the emergence of interest systems depressed during cold war periods). Energies wasted during cold war periods cannot be regained, situations reached can­not be changed overnight. Thus mankind can no longer afford to lose time in this way among the dangers that exist at this stage of this century. All the same, the mil­itary sphere has not yet realized the dangers inherent in the new world economic situa­tion, and has not drawn the consequences for the security sphere. Yet the fact remains that even a partial solution of the severe problems of our times will follow only from analyzing problems common to politics, security and economics, and from trying to understand the different internal logic of different systems. The concept of decision, together with the problems of decision, emerge in the global dimension in keeping with the per­spective of the book. Any solution of global problems requires global cooperation, which assumes the development of international agreement on at least some fundamental prob­lems followed by concerted action. There is no world plan nor is there world govern­ment. There are, however, world forecasts, from which each country draws conclusions to suit its own interests, which often conflict with those of other countries. Running through the work is a search for ways for mankind to avoid the dangers inherent the change of era in the world economy, and for what would be needed to prepare decisions and decision making on a global dimension. Exploring possibilities here, the author delves into the roles to be played by the social sciences, international

Next