The New Hungarian Quarterly, 1983 (24. évfolyam, 91. szám)

Bognár József: Economic Crisis in the Age of Mutual Dependences

ECONOMIC CRISIS IN THE AGE OF MUTUAL DEPENDENCES by JÓZSEF BOGNÁR T he world crisis has now been with us for ten years. It followed on the most successful quarter of a century in economic history (1948-1973), a period which though contradictory and uneven when measured against the changed needs, showed relative im­provement even there. Indeed, if we subject the processes and connections to a careful analysis, the crisis seems to be growing rather than abating. There is no doubt that the world economic crisis has reached every economic system in all of their variations; whether market or “mixed” economies in wealthy capitalist countries or those of socialist or of the developing countries of various models. The characteristics of the crisis are stagnation, a high rate of inflation coupled with high unemployment, or lower inflation and lower unemploy­ment in the capitalist world, heavy deficits in balance of payments and in the budget. A general imbalance developed in the socialist countries because of the high proportion of inputs relative to the new value produced, and because of the difference between national income produced and distributed. To express this another way, the current models in socialist economic policy are creating a total demand which is greater than they are able to meet. These phenomena of a general lack of balance are appreciable particularly in the balance of payments and in the budget. (That is, the budget is the buffer mechanism of the economic and enterprise deficits derived from various sources in the current model.) However, it should be observed that unemployment has not raised its head yet (with the exception of Yugoslavia, where a certain level of unemployment has occurred even during the best periods). It is possible that certain negative effects which derive from methods of guaranteeing full employment will have to be examined; this is because methods and forms developed earlier involve rigid structures,

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